With less than three weeks until the November 5 presidential election, a new analysis reveals that a decline in democratic accountability in the United States may diminish the voice of American voters. The report, titled “Democratic Distortions and a Struggling State: The United States on the Eve of the 2024 Presidential Election,” is authored by researchers from the Luskin School of Public Affairs at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), the Berggruen Institute, and the Hertie School in Berlin.
The report underscores significant governance challenges threatening the US political system, noting that both democratic accountability and state capacity have sharply declined since 2015, particularly in critical swing states. According to the findings, electoral accountability scores fell from 92 out of 100 in 2015 to 82 in 2021.
The authors argue that diminishing democratic accountability means the power of the American electorate is waning. “Declining democratic accountability means that the power of the American people’s voice will be diminished—both in terms of electoral voice and the ability of social institutions to check elected officials once in office,” they stated. They also warned that a potential second presidency for Donald Trump could pose major challenges for an already struggling electoral system.
The report highlights alarming declines in democratic norms at the state level, which carry “critical consequences for electoral integrity.” Swing states such as North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia have experienced significant drops in democratic standards. Notably, North Carolina saw a staggering decline from nearly 100 in the mid-2000s to below 25 in 2018, attributed to documented crackdowns on voting rights that reached unprecedented levels in 2023.
Voter turnout, a crucial indicator of public engagement, remains low compared to other advanced democracies. In the 2020 elections, turnout was at 66%, trailing behind many Western European countries where participation rates were significantly higher between 2018 and 2022.
The report further identifies “another widespread problem” in the US electoral system—the disproportionate influence of money in politics. Landmark US Supreme Court decisions have removed limits on electoral spending, resulting in a political environment where the voices of average citizens are increasingly overshadowed.
Although there has been a slight increase in public goods provision, it remains below levels seen in many peer nations. The report questions the sustainability of high public spending on healthcare, which has not yielded improved outcomes, especially against a backdrop of rising public debt. The candidates in the upcoming election are expected to exacerbate the deficit, raising concerns about the long-term provision of public goods.
The report also notes a steady erosion of state capacity since 2000 across fiscal, coordination, and delivery sectors. This decline hampers the government’s ability to respond effectively to crises, potentially fuelling public anger and frustration with government efficacy.
If Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins the election, researchers believe she would likely continue many of President Joe Biden’s policies, potentially reversing some declines in state capacity. Conversely, they suggest that Republican candidate Donald Trump may enact drastic cuts to the administrative state.
Ultimately, the findings highlight enduring governance challenges in the US, impacting democratic accountability, state capacity, and the provision of public goods. The researchers conclude that these issues will persist irrespective of the election outcome, suggesting a Democratic administration may address them more effectively than a Trump-led government. However, both scenarios face considerable obstacles.