A recent report from NatWest reveals that Northern Ireland is leading private sector growth across the UK, contrasting sharply with a slight contraction observed in Wales. The findings are part of the NatWest Regional Growth Tracker, which offers an in-depth monthly analysis of economic activity across the nation’s 12 regions and nations.
According to the report, business activity in September saw an increase in all but one of the UK’s regions, following broad-based growth recorded in August. The Business Activity Index serves as a critical indicator of regional economic health, measuring monthly changes in output from goods and services in the private sector. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and the further above this threshold, the stronger the expansion.
While Northern Ireland stands out with its most substantial output increase since May, Wales experienced a slight decline in business activity, preventing the UK from enjoying two consecutive months of universal growth. Overall, the data suggest a slowdown in growth rates compared to August, highlighting the varied performance across different regions.
Sebastian Burnside, NatWest’s Chief Economist, commented on the findings, noting, “September’s Growth Tracker report demonstrated greater variation in performance across the UK’s nations and regions compared to August, when activity rose universally. While output continued to increase in nearly all areas, there was a stark contrast between the strong, accelerated growth in Northern Ireland and the decline in Wales.”
The report also highlights significant disparities in employment trends, with only half of the regions recording an increase in jobs during September, down from ten regions in August. Similarly, while business confidence remained generally positive, it declined in just over half of the regions surveyed.
Despite these mixed results in economic activity and employment, price pressures across the UK remained consistent in September. Rates of increase in average charges for goods and services were closely aligned with the national average, suggesting a more straightforward inflation narrative for policymakers.
Burnside added, “The consistency in price pressures across the 12 regions helps to simplify the UK inflation picture for monetary authorities, offering a clearer understanding of the economic landscape amid varying regional performances.”
In summary, while Northern Ireland shows strong growth, the mixed results from Wales and fluctuating employment figures indicate a complex economic situation across the UK. The NatWest Regional Growth Tracker continues to provide valuable insights into the performance of different regions, highlighting the nuances of economic recovery in the aftermath of recent challenges.