The Grand National is among the most famous occasions in the horse racing calendar. For many people, it is an annual tradition to have a bet on it regardless of whether you are an experienced gambler or just someone who bets once a year. As 40 horses race around the Aintree course, punters are left hoping their horse wins.
But what if you could better your chances of achieving a winner by looking at the trends that have affected the race throughout history? There are key trends and if you look at the bookies odds, it can help steer you in the right direction when organizing your selections ahead of the 2025 Grand National. It is essential to know the most important trends, so here’s your guide.
1. Age Matters: Horses Aged 9 to 11 Perform Best
Certain age groups have historically performed better than others over the years in the Grand National. Horses aged from 9 to 11 have historically had the best record in this race. In general, horses that are either too old or too young usually do not cope as well with the rigours of the Grand National’s demanding course.
- Why it matters: Horses aged 9 to 11 will be fully mature in terms of their physical maturity and stamina. These horses will have enough experience to handle the 4.5-mile course, while still having enough energy to overcome the demands of the course.
2. The Importance of Previous Experience in the Grand National
A significant number of the successful steeds in the Grand National have previously participated in the very same steeplechase. New horses could probably put on a surprise, but it is apparent that any previous experience on the race day venue in Aintree is always valuable. Horses that made it to the Grand National typically perform to a higher level than horses that have never run at the race day venue, even if the horse did not win in its previous attempt.
- Why it matters: The Grand National track is among the hardest, most distinctive tracks in the world with 30 fences to clear and a challenging distance. Horses who already have experience at Aintree know what to expect and can handle it better. To be fair, some horses take a couple of attempts to get into their rhythm, so it isn’t necessary to disregard the first-timers entirely.
3. The Role of Weight: Horses Carrying Less Weight Perform Better
Weight plays a key role in the Grand National and historically if horses are given very different weights that horses with a lesser weight tend to do well. Horses asked to carry too much weight just can’t retain speed and dash over the long-lasting distance and rigorous nature of the race. Undoubtedly, some weight is the norm in a race of this stature, however, the trend has been that lower-weighted horses (horses carrying under 11 stone) have a better chance of being successful.
- Why it matters: The Grand National is one of the longest horse races in the world. Lighter horses have an advantage in stamina and can run quicker without tiring as easily, which is important when dealing with very testing fences and long sections associated with the Aintree course.
4. Trainers and Jockeys: Experience and Familiarity Are Key
When making a selection and placing a bet, you should take note of the horse, but also pay attention to its jockey and trainer. A good horse to back in the Grand National is a horse trained with good success in the race, just like a jockey who has experience in the Grand National will have a better understanding of the course and race conditions.
- Why it matters: Trainers who have successfully prepared horses for the Grand National in the past know how to get a horse ready for such a demanding race. Similarly, jockeys who have ridden over the notoriously taxing fences previously have an advantage in both experience and confidence. Search for combinations of jockeys and trainers who know what is required to compete in the Grand National.
5. The Impact of the Odds: Don’t Always Bet on the Favorite
The favorite is usually a favored choice, but putting your money on the favorite in the Grand National is not a guarantee. It is a race known for surprises, where the outsiders might surprise as often as the favorites win. Horses with big odds have often won the race, and many bettors will win by betting on horses with bigger prices.
- Why it matters: What makes the Grand National so thrilling is its unpredictability, but provides a chance for anyone willing to back an outsider. Historically the winners are around 10-15% horses with Aintree Grand National betting odds of 20/1 or higher, meaning it can offer some good value when backing outsiders. Don’t just exclude a horse because it is a longshot, particularly if it has a strong jockey and trainer.
6. Look for Horses with Stamina and Jumping Ability
Due to the length and unique challenges of the Grand National course, horses that stay well and can jump well tend to be successful in the event. The Aintree course is a demanding task with fences that require dexterity and athleticism to complete. Horses that have a sustained ride in longer races, or that have form over jumps elsewhere, will be in a better position in the Grand National.
- Why it matters: With 30 fences to negotiate, a horse’s jumping ability cannot be compromised. Stamina is also essential, as the race is more than four miles. Horses that are able to maintain their effort throughout the race, without tiring, are among the upcoming wins.
7. Trends in Past Winners: Horses Coming Off a Solid Lead-Up Season
Although it is certainly tempting to bet on horses based strictly on their Grand National odds, it is also crucial to examine their actual form prior to the race. Historically, the horses of the sport that perform well in the months leading up to the Grand National are often the horses that are successful in the actual race. A horse that has run competitively in other major race meetings such as the Cheltenham Festival or exhibited prior strong consistent performance in other races is typically an indicator of a horses’ potential performance.
- Why it matters: A horse’s current form is an indication of its degree of fitness and readiness for the Grand National. If it has looked resolute and had quality in the lead-up events, that horse has a pretty good chance of maintaining that form into the race, so it is a likely bet.
8. Track and Weather Conditions: Don’t Ignore the Impact
The day of the race, and the weather, will have an important impact on the outcome of the race. For example, a wet track may help a horse that likes soft ground, while a dry track is favorable to horses that run better on firm ground. Bettors should look at the forecast leading up to the race, as weather will have a large impact on a horse’s performance.
- Why it matters: Some horses like certain ground conditions more than others, and if you understand how the weather affects the condition of the track, you may be able to give yourself an advantage in your selection process. Always stay on top of the weather in the days leading up to the race.
Conclusion
While the Grand National is a very exciting race both to watch and in which to place a wager, betting on the Grand National requires study and some strategy. Keeping these betting trends in mind will put you in a better position to make the decision to place a wager on the Grand National. Minimum age, minimum experience, weight and past form are very important.
Don’t forget that the Grand National is always a gamble, but you can pick the horses with the best chance of success with some knowledge of the main trends and indicators. Just remember, whether backing the favourite or one of the outsiders, you’ll have a certain advantage over other punters if you do your research. Good luck and enjoy the ride!